EPIA said Europe as the world's leading photovoltaic power station the day has ended, but the global situation is positive.
EPIA expected
According to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), global PV installed capacity is expected to grow five years to offset the decline of Europe as a world leader in solar region once.
On Intersolar Europe presents its forward-looking expectations for the first time, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association EPIA expects continued strong growth in the photovoltaic industry until 2018.
But EPIA's "2014-2018 Global PV Market Outlook" report stressed that the decline of Europe as a global PV cabin, and is expected after five years of this decade it will manage only half of its annual installed capacity in the peak achieved in 2011 .
After the 2013 global demand breakthroughs 38.4GW, EPIA "value" prediction set to at least 43GW, EPIA new president Oliver ? Schaefer (Oliver Schafer) called "(PV) industry, exciting year."
However, EPIA also expects a "high scenario" situation, which may see the 2014 global PV demand of 52GW. From an historical perspective, EPIA has been highly conserved in terms of its demand is expected, but the situation is expected to exceed the 2014 high to market research firm NPD Solarbuzz most promising (50GW) expectations.
Schaefer told PV-Tech in an interview that in 2014 the median forecast is very conservative, it is impossible to install close to the actual figures, and the possibility of approaching the high scenario is growing.
Although the PV market EPIA optimistic about 2014, but the trade association expects in 2015 its "value" and "high value" scenario almost flat growth, estimated at 45GW and 53GW.
2016 is expected to grow more strongly demand that the potential height 56GW, the number is approximately 46GW. Expects stronger growth in 2017, the median number of about 50GW, the high value of the number of 62GW.
2018, the median forecast of PV demand is likely to reach around 53GW, high situational breakthrough 69GW.
Schaefer pointed out that due to the truly global PV industry has occurred, has entered a new phase in the industry for the lifting of the single market (Europe) especially (Germany) dependence.
According to EPIA, 2013 years more than 27GW of new installations occurred outside Europe, while 2012 was only 13.9GW.
Not surprisingly, EPIA noted that China, Japan and the United States is the main market in 2013, these markets are expected to remain strong in the coming years.
According to Schaefer, "PV is no longer a niche energy market participants," which has become a "serious participants need to act in a different way."
EPIA president pointed out that changes in thinking as trade associations, indicating that the industry needs to cooperate with each other with all the renewable energy and gas sector, to provide a unified path in order to achieve an acceptable and realistic low-carbon future.
Schaefer said that the cooperation with the same level of penetration of wind power and natural gas, he believes there is no reason not to PV accounted for about 35% of Europe's future energy needs. To achieve this goal, the European energy market will need to change, to become better adapted to renewable energy, Schaefer said EPIA will lead the push to take some action within the scope of support from elected European renewable energy or technology sector.
Decline in Europe
In short, EPIA said that the decline is due to the instability of the European policy has led to the boom and bust cycle, as politicians take action to prevent overheating after the rapid development of the market crash.
The report noted that the country has experienced ups and downs cycle bankruptcy before irreparable degree of confidence of investors.
The report said: "On the contrary, seems to have been to ensure that decision-makers in these countries, the PV market will not be allowed to reach the same level previously reached this situation in Spain, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and is likely to occur in Belgium and Italy. . "
"European PV market is still untapped quantities are limited, and considering past experience, if the pattern of boom and bust of a particular country to see replicated elsewhere in Europe, and further decline in the overall market potential."
According to EPIA, the most likely situation in Europe, the installed capacity will bounce back in 2014 about 8-9GW, the lowest since 2009, after five years of the decade up to about 10-12GW.
Schaefer said: "The situation in Europe late last year showed that the PV than any other energy businesses, maintaining policy-driven."
"In the past few years, European countries implemented a series of retrospective measures, leading to a significant decline in the market in 2013 appeared in Europe as well as sustainable, predictable and dynamic global framework conditions and policies needed to provide investors with adequate visibility."
However, despite the European Photovoltaic continued to decline, but it is still one of the two largest European installed capacity of energy, following the wind, currently covers 3% of electricity demand and 6% of Europe's electricity demand peaks.
And the report stressed that the rapid growth in the photovoltaic rest of the world is expected that this trend will continue for the foreseeable future, to further consolidate the global market share of PV.
To 2018, EPIA said, the cumulative global PV installed capacity could more than triple today's level of around 400GW.
Schaefer said: "Solar is becoming an important part of the global power systems, changing the way we power the world's energy stakeholders and policymakers should now understand the power grid and market demand will be able to adjust to these new realities. and to promote cost-effective energy transformation. "